A Certain Flexibility: A Comparative Analysis of UK and EU Space Debris Mitigation Regulation

Abstract

With the rapid development of large-scale commercial space activity in what is being called the New Space era, regulators are having to grapple with an escalating threat to the orbital environment: the accumulation of space debris. Debris-related risks are self-reinforcing as collisions between debris and other objects themselves generate more debris. The result is a non-linear risk profile with projected tipping points known as Kessler events.^[1] In such an event, cascading collisions result in clouds of debris that have the potential to render entire areas of orbital space unusable. This paper analyses how regulatory tools are used to determine, structure, and assess debris mitigation and its broader operational and environmental trade-offs, as well as how these choices affect the certainty of sustainability outcomes and the flexibility to develop and incorporate new understandings in space.

[1] Kessler DJ and Cour‐Palais BG, Collision Frequency of Artificial Satellites: The Creation of a Debris Belt (1978) 83(A6) Journal of Geophysical Research 2637 https://doi.org/10.1029/ja083ia06p02637.